Kenyans have been advised to prepare for an extended period of sunny and dry weather, with higher-than-average temperatures, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met).
While some areas may see occasional showers, the overall trend points to warmer and drier conditions across much of the country.
In its monthly weather forecast, Kenya Met highlighted that counties including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kericho, Nakuru, and Kiambu may receive some rainfall during this period, but the intensity is likely to be light and sporadic.
Most regions are expected to experience above-normal temperatures until the main rainy season begins in March. The department has urged residents to take precautions against heat-related health issues by staying hydrated and avoiding prolonged exposure to the sun.
“Occasional rainfall is, however, likely to occur over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Southern Rift Valley, parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley—including Nairobi—and areas in the South-eastern lowlands,” the forecast stated.
The department added that March is expected to mark the onset of the rainfall season in many parts of the country, with April anticipated to be the peak month, when rain distribution will become more widespread and heavier.
Kenya Met attributed the current drier conditions to global climate patterns, particularly La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
La Niña, a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, is characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Pacific.
This pattern affects weather globally, contributing to drier-than-normal conditions in East Africa.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, another key climate driver, is defined by differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.
A negative IOD occurs when the eastern Indian Ocean is warmer than the western part, leading to dry conditions in East Africa, while a positive IOD typically brings heavier rains to the region.
Kenya Met noted that both La Niña and a negative IOD are still present, reinforcing the likelihood of continued dry weather and higher temperatures for much of the country.
The department also warned that while the rains are expected to arrive in March, residents should not anticipate immediate relief from the current heat.
Farmers, in particular, were advised to take precautionary measures for crops and livestock due to the extended dry conditions.
Urban residents were reminded to be cautious of heat stress and ensure adequate water supply, especially in areas prone to water shortages.
Overall, the Kenya Met forecast signals a transition period where dry, hot conditions dominate much of February, followed by the gradual return of rainfall in March, with April marking the peak of the rainy season across the country.
Residents are encouraged to monitor updates and prepare for the seasonal changes in weather.
