Two million Kenyans are facing hunger as one of the worst droughts in more than four decades hits the country.
The crisis follows a failure of last year’s short rains, leaving many communities with depleted water sources and failing crops.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) says there is hope on the horizon, as the long rains expected between March and May could bring meaningful relief.
“The situation in the country’s food basket regions looks promising, with enough rain expected during the long rains season,” the department said on Tuesday, February 3.
Kenya Met has forecast above-normal rainfall across central and western Kenya, which are the nation’s key agricultural regions.
This brings cautious optimism to farmers and pastoralists who depend on these rains to replenish water sources, feed livestock, and restore crops.
However, experts warn that the rains may not fully undo the damage already caused. Areas in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), including Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa, have been the hardest hit by the prolonged dry spell.
According to a climate advisor at Kenya Met, “Even average to above-average rainfall may not be adequate to offset the deficit already on the ground, because the OND rainfall failed in these areas.”
The government has already taken steps to mitigate the impact of the drought.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi confirmed that approximately Ksh6 billion has been released to support communities in the hardest-hit ASAL counties.
The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) is coordinating relief across the country, including food aid, emergency cash transfers, and water trucking to areas where taps and boreholes have run dry.
School feeding programs are being scaled up to keep children in classrooms, while livestock support programs, including off-take initiatives, hay provision, and vaccinations, are helping pastoralists maintain their livelihoods.
The drought is being driven by a mature La Niña weather event, which is associated with unusually cold ocean temperatures, combined with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, both of which typically reduce rainfall across East Africa during this period.
This is not only a Kenyan problem. Neighboring countries, including Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda, are also experiencing drought conditions, creating a regional crisis that requires cross-border cooperation.
Climate scientists are monitoring a possible shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions between May and July 2026, which could bring even heavier rains to the region later in the year.
For now, Kenya Met is urging communities to remain prepared and vigilant, as the long rains will play a critical role in determining food and water security in the months ahead.
While hope remains for recovery, much depends on how these rains materialize, especially in areas already severely affected by months of dry weather.
