The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a weather outlook for February 16 to 23, 2026, predicting mixed conditions across the country. Some areas will see heavy rains, while others remain sunny and dry.
Counties in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and parts of the South Rift are expected to experience rainfall, especially during afternoons and nights, according to KMD’s February 16 statement.
Migori, Homa Bay, Kisii, Nyamira, parts of Narok, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta near the Tanzanian border are likely to record the heaviest rainfall during the forecast period.
The Lake Region and South Rift will also see wet conditions, stretching from Kisumu, Siaya, and Busia to Kakamega, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, and Uasin Gishu.
Rainfall in these areas is expected to be more frequent in the afternoons and evenings, while mornings remain largely sunny, according to satellite and radar images reviewed by The Kenya Times.
Central Highlands counties such as Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, and Nairobi will experience light to moderate showers in isolated areas.
These central regions will have cloudy starts, sunny intervals, and brief afternoon showers in some parts, making the weather variable but generally manageable for residents and commuters.
In the Southeastern Lowlands, counties including Kitui, Machakos, and Makueni will experience irregular rainfall, with long dry periods between showers.
Coastal counties, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Tana River, are set to remain mainly hot and sunny, with minimal chances of precipitation, maintaining typical coastal conditions.
Northern and northeastern counties will continue to experience the driest conditions. Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, and most of Turkana will remain sunny, dry, and occasionally windy.
These areas are expected to record very low rainfall, making them prone to persistent heat, which could affect pastoral activities and water availability in the region.
KMD also highlighted soaring temperatures in eastern and north-eastern counties, where maximum readings are likely to exceed 36°C, particularly in Garissa, Tana River, Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, and parts of Kitui and Marsabit.
Central and eastern Kenya, including Machakos, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Embu, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, and Kiambu, will record daytime temperatures between 26°C and 35°C, with Nairobi falling within this band.
Cooler conditions are expected in the western highlands and central Rift Valley, where Kericho, Bomet, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, and parts of Nyandarua and Laikipia will experience temperatures between 16°C and 25°C.
KMD has urged residents in areas expecting heavy rainfall to exercise caution, especially along flood-prone rivers and low-lying regions, while northern counties are advised to prepare for intense heat and low water availability.
This weather pattern reflects Kenya’s typical February climate, where western and highland regions experience early rains while the north and northeast continue to face hot, dry conditions.
Authorities and residents are advised to monitor local weather updates and plan activities according to the forecast to avoid disruptions from sudden rains or heatwaves.
Overall, Kenyans can expect a mix of sunny, hot, and wet days depending on their location, with significant rainfall in western and Rift Valley counties, and scorching temperatures across the north-eastern regions.
