The Kenya Meteorological Department has urged Kenyans to prepare for increased rainfall as the country transitions into the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 season. In its latest monthly outlook, the weatherman projects near-average to above-average rainfall across several regions, especially during the first half of March.
Counties in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley are likely to record enhanced rainfall. Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Nairobi are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, with occasional heavy downpours within the first 15 days of the month.
Areas within the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin will also experience similar conditions. Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Narok will record near-average to above-average rainfall, with heavy spells likely early in the month.
Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, and Taita-Taveta counties are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Eastern parts of Tana River County will experience near-average conditions, with occasional heavy rains expected during the first half of March.
Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo counties are forecast to receive near-average rainfall. However, western parts of Marsabit and Isiolo could record near-average to above-average totals. Turkana and Samburu counties are also projected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall, with seasonal onset expected between the first and second weeks of April.
Lamu, Tana Delta, and eastern parts of Kilifi County will likely receive near-average rainfall. Meanwhile, Mombasa, Kwale, and western Kilifi are expected to record near-average to above-average rainfall amounts.
“Intermittent rainfall, which may occasionally be heavy, is expected during the first half of the month. Rainfall onset for the North Coast is likely from the fourth week of March to the first week of April,” Kenya Met stated.
According to Kenya Met, March officially marks the onset of the MAM season, with April expected to be the climatic peak. The majority of regions will experience intensified rainfall in the first half of March, followed by a gradual reduction in the second half.
The department warned that isolated heavy rainfall events may occur nationwide during the season. Most parts of the country are expected to conclude the MAM season by late May.
Authorities have advised residents in flood-prone areas to remain alert and monitor official updates. Farmers, transport operators, and county governments are encouraged to prepare for potential disruptions associated with heavy rainfall during the peak weeks.
